Ma ka hola 10:00 o Beijing, ua ʻōlelo ʻo Pelekikena Vladimir Putin ua hoʻoholo ʻo ia e hana i kahi hana kaua kūikawā ma ka ʻāina ʻo Donbas ma ka hikina o Ukraine.Ma hope koke iho, ua lohe ʻia nā pahū ma ka wahi mokulele ʻo Boryspil ma Kiev, ke kapikala o Ukraine, ma Kyiv, Odessa, Kharkov, Kramatorsk a me Berdyansk, e hōʻailona ana i nā ʻāina Lūkini a me ʻEulopa ma ka ʻāina ʻEulopa.Ua piʻi aʻe ka hakakā ma waena o nā ʻāina ʻelua ma ke ʻano holoʻokoʻa.Aia ka mokuʻāina o Ukraine i ke kaua.
E like me ka manawa paʻi, ua piʻi aʻe ke kumukūʻai hoʻokele kinoea kūlohelohe ʻEulopa TTF i 114 euros no MWh.He aha ke ʻano o nā hoʻololi hohonu e lawe mai i ka hanana ʻo Russia-Ukraine i ka ʻoihana ikehu maʻemaʻe ma ka home a me nā ʻāina ʻē, a pehea e pili ai i ka wikiwiki o ka hoʻololi ʻana i ka ikehu kuʻuna i nā ʻoihana photovoltaic a me ka makani?I kēia manawa, ua manaʻo ʻia e piʻi aʻe nā kumukūʻai maka o kekahi mau huahana photovoltaic, a e wikiwiki hou ka koi no ka makani a me ka lā ma ʻEulopa a me nā wahi ʻē aʻe.
Hiki ke piʻi aʻe nā kumukūʻai kinoea kūikawā, paʻa ka hiki ke hoʻouna a mau ke kumukūʻai kiʻekiʻe
ʻO kaʻoiaʻiʻo, ʻo Ukraine ke kumu o nā kinoea kūikawā no ka hana semiconductor honua, no laila ma hope o kēia hakakā e hoʻopilikia i ka hemahema o kekahi mau kinoea kūikawā uila i hoʻohana ʻia i nā semiconductor.He mea koʻikoʻi nā huahana Semiconductor no nā huahana hana photovoltaic e like me nā inverters.E loaʻa ana kahi ʻano o nā hopena i ka wā e hiki mai ana?
He kiʻekiʻe ka nui o Ukraine i nā mākeke kinoea neon, xenon, a me krypton, a ʻo ka hakakā e hoʻolilo i kekahi mau mea hana kinoea kūikawā i hiki ʻole ke hana ʻia a pōʻino paha.
Ua ʻōlelo kekahi mau mea hana semiconductor no ka loaʻa ʻana o nā kinoea kūikawā mai nā ʻāina he nui, me Ukraine, ʻaʻohe hapa o nā huahana i ka wā pōkole.Ua ʻōlelo ʻo Micron CEO Melotta i kahi ninaninau kūʻokoʻa me Bloomberg News e hele mai ana kahi hapa o ke kinoea hanohano mai Ukraine, akā ua hoʻomākaukau ʻia kahi waihona waiwai nui, a ʻo ka mea nui, he nui nā kumu hoʻolako o ka hui, me ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa, ʻEulopa a me ʻAsia.Manaʻo ʻo ia ke hoʻomau nei ka ʻoihana e nānā pono i ke kūlana a manaʻolana e maʻalahi.Ua hōʻike pū ʻo SK Hynix ua loaʻa iā ia kahi waihona nui o nā kinoea inert, no laila ʻaʻohe pono e hopohopo nui.Akā ʻoiai hiki i ka noi ke hoʻohālikelike i ka lako, ʻaʻole hiki ke pale ʻia e ʻike kekahi mau kinoea hanohano i ka piʻi ʻana o ke kumukūʻai.ʻO ke kumukūʻai o neon, kahi huahana, ua piʻi ma hope o ka hakakā ma waena o Rūsia a me Ukraine i ka makahiki 2014, i ka manawa he $ 3,500 ke kumukūʻai no ka mika cubic, ʻoi aku ma mua o 10 mau manawa kiʻekiʻe ma mua.
Me ka piʻi nui o ka hakakā ma waena o nā ʻāina ʻelua, ua piʻi nui ke kumukūʻai o ke gula.ʻO ka mea waiwai nui o nā huahana paʻi kālā maʻamau i hoʻohana ʻia i ka ikehu o ka lā, ʻo ia ka pauka kālā, i hoʻopili ʻia i ke kumukūʻai kālā ʻo Lākana.ʻAʻohe lono o ka piʻi ākea o nā kumukūʻai kālā i kēia manawa.No laila, i ka wā pōkole, ʻaʻohe hōʻailona o ka piʻi ʻana o nā kumukūʻai pāpaʻi kālā.
He aha ka hopena o ka hanana ʻo Russia-Ukraine i ka lawe ʻana i nā pahu, ʻoi aku hoʻi no nā huahana ikehu hou?
Wahi a ka poʻe nānā ʻo Fang, e mau ana ke kumukūʻai o nā ukana kai.I nā makahiki ʻelua i hala iho nei, ua piʻi ke kumukūʻai e 4, 5 mau manawa a ʻoi aku paha.ʻO ka piʻi ʻana o nā kumukūʻai aila e pili ana i ka piʻi ʻana o ke kumukūʻai o ka diesel, ka mea maka no ka lawe ʻana i nā ipu, akā inā hoʻonui ka mea moku i ke kumukūʻai ma kēia, ʻaʻole ia e pili i ke kumukūʻai moku kiʻekiʻe.ʻAʻole nui ka hoʻonui ʻia.Eia naʻe, ʻaʻole e hāʻule ka papa kuhikuhi kumu kūʻai o ka lawe pahu pahu i ka wā pōkole, e hoʻomau ʻia ka hoʻoikaika ʻana i ka nui o ka moku holoʻokoʻa, a ʻo ke kaulahao hoʻouna pahu pahu i loko o kahi kūlana paʻa.Ma kekahi ʻaoʻao, ma muli o ka mutant strain o Omicron, ua hoʻomau ka maʻi maʻi i nā ʻāina he nui o ʻEulopa, a ʻo ka hōʻiliʻili ʻana o nā hihia hou i ʻike ʻia e mālama i ke kūlana kiʻekiʻe i ke kūlana kiʻekiʻe, a maikaʻi loa ka mākeke no ka hoʻouna ʻana.I ka pane ʻana i ka pilikia o nā kaua kūloko, hiki i ʻEulopa ke hoʻonui i ka waihona o nā mea waiwai, a laila e hoʻonui i ka noi holoʻokoʻa no nā mile ton-nautical e hoʻonui.Ma ka holoʻokoʻa, e ʻoi aku ka nui o ka pahu pahu, a ʻaʻole kiʻekiʻe ka hiki ʻana o ke kumukūʻai o ke kai, a ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi o ka mālama ʻana i ke kūlana quo a i ʻole e hoʻonui iki.
ʻO ka mana makani Photovoltaic, a me nā mea'ē aʻe, ke wikiwiki nei ka hoʻololi o ka ikehu hou
ʻO ka hoʻomaka ʻana o kēia pōʻai o ke kaua kūloko ma waena o Russia a me Ukraine e loaʻa i kahi hopena maikaʻi i ka wikiwiki o ka ikehu hou e pani i ka ikehu kuʻuna.I ka lā a pau i kēia lā, ua hōʻike ʻia ka piʻi ʻana o nā waihona ikehu hou.ʻO Zhongli Group, Sungrow, Trina Solar, Risen Energy, Foster, JinkoSolar, JA Technology, LONGi, GoodWe, Chint Electric, Zhonghuan, a me Jolywood ua kū aʻe i ka hopena.Ua loaʻa ka PV 50ETF i 1.53%.
Ua piʻi nui nā kumukūʻai kinoea kūlohelohe i kēia mau lā.ʻAʻole kēia he nūhou maikaʻi no ka ʻāina ʻEulopa, kahi i piʻi ai nā kumukūʻai kinoea maoli ma kahi o ʻehā i ka makahiki i hala.I kēia manawa, hiki mai ka hapakolu o ke kinoea maoli ma ʻEulopa mai ke kinoea maoli, a ua hoʻonui hou ka geopolitics i ka pilikia hoʻolako.Ma ka hola 4 pm i kēia lā, ua piʻi ke kumu kūʻai o ke kinoea kūlohelohe Dutch TTF no ka ʻehā o ka hālāwai, e piʻi ana ma kahi o 41% i ka lā hoʻokahi.Ua ʻōlelo pū ʻo US Pelekikena Joe Biden e hana hou ʻo ia i nā hana hoʻopaʻi kūʻē iā Rūsia.ʻO nā hoʻopaʻi e hoʻopaʻa ana i ke komo ʻana o Rūsia i ke kālā ʻē aʻe e hoʻonui i nā mākeke aila, kinoea a me nā waiwai e like me nā metala a me nā mea kanu.
He kiʻekiʻe loa ka hilinaʻi kinoea kūlohelohe kūloko ma ʻEulopa, a hiki i 90%.No laila, i kēia manawa ke piʻi nei ke kumukūʻai o ke kinoea kūlohelohe, ʻoi aku ka nui o nā mea hoʻohana ʻenehana, mana a me nā mea hoʻohana wela i maʻa i ka hoʻohana ʻana i ke kinoea kūlohelohe e ʻimi i nā ala palekana e hoʻoponopono ai i kā lākou pono.E hoʻokē ʻia ka hoʻololi ʻana i nā kumu ikehu hou e like me ka ikehu lā.
Ua kuhikuhi ʻo Wood Mackenzie me ka piʻi ʻana o ka mana hoʻololi, ʻehā mau koho no ka hoʻohālikelike ʻana i nā hana mākia: pumped hydro, natural gas peaking power plant.Ua ʻōlelo ʻo Rory McCarthy, ka loiloi nui o ka ʻoihana, "No nā ʻōnaehana mana o kēia wā, hiki i nā mea kanu kinoea maoli ke hoʻokō i ka mana piha i loko o ʻelua mau minuke, a hiki ke hana ma kahi haʻahaʻa me ka hoʻonui ʻana i ka pono a hiki ke hāʻawi i ka mana no ka manawa hoʻomau mau ʻole.ʻO ka manaʻo he hoʻolako pau ʻole o ke kinoea maoli.
Akā ma ka makahiki 2030, e loaʻa ana ka mālama ʻana i ka ikehu pilahi i nā peaker kinoea maoli ma ke ʻano he koho haʻahaʻa loa e kaulike ai i ka mānoanoa o ʻEulopa.Manaʻo ʻia ka nui o ka mālama ʻana i ka ikehu ma nā ʻāpana āpau o ʻEulopa mai ka 3GW o kēia manawa (koe ka pumped hydro) a hiki i 26GW e 2030 a me 89GW e 2040. Ua ʻike ʻo McCarthy e hiki i ka 2040, hiki i ʻEulopa ke loaʻa i ka 320GWh o ka hiki ke mālama i ka ikehu i loaʻa e kaulike i ka ʻōnaehana mana. .ʻO ka hapa nui o lākou e hele mai mai nā ʻōnaehana mālama ikehu ʻaoʻao hoʻohana."E piʻi aʻe nā kumukūʻai o ka ʻaila a me ka lanahu, a ʻo nā kulekele hoʻokuʻu net-zero e hoʻoholo hope i ka decarbonization o nā lawelawe mākeke uila," wahi a McCarthy.
Ua hoʻopuka ka ʻoihana loiloi ʻo Bloomberg New Energy Finance i kahi hōʻike noiʻi, i hōʻike ʻia: Ma ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa, ʻoiai ke hoʻomau nei ka laha ʻana o ka mana o ka lā a me ka ʻai ʻana i ka manawa hana o nā mea mana kinoea maoli, pono nā mea kanu kinoea maoli e hoʻomaka hou. e pani pinepine.Hoʻonui kēia i kā lākou uku hana ma muli o nā koi wahie a me ka lole a me ka waimaka.
I kēia manawa, ke kiʻekiʻe loa ke kumukūʻai o ke kinoea maoli, e ʻoi aku ka noʻonoʻo o nā mea hoʻopukapuka i ka hoʻoholo ʻana inā e pani i ke ʻano hana mana hou e pale aku ai i ka pilikia o kēia kumu kūʻai kiʻekiʻe.
ʻOiaʻiʻo, ʻaʻole makemake ka poʻe lawe aku i ke kinoea maoli e ʻike i kēia kūlana.E ʻimi pū lākou i nā ala e hoʻonui ai i nā kumukūʻai kinoea ma mua o ke kiʻekiʻe kiʻekiʻe, inā ʻaʻole e lilo ka lawe ʻana i ke kinoea maoli i pilikia ke hoʻokumu ʻia ke kūlana o ka haʻalele ʻana i ka ʻoihana a me ka mana.
Hoʻohālikelike ʻia me ka pae mua o ka hakakā ʻo Russia-Ukraine ma 2014 (Ianuari 19, 2014 a Malaki 20, 2014), i ka hana o nā papa waiwai nui, ua piʻi nui nā kumukūʻai kūʻai, e like me 7,6%.Ua piʻi ke kumukūʻai o ka aila maʻemaʻe e 4.2%, a ua piʻi ke kumukūʻai gula ma 6.1% (mai Haitong Securities.) ʻO ka hoʻomau ʻana i ke kumukūʻai kiʻekiʻe o ka aila maʻemaʻe e ʻoi aku ka nui o ka hoʻohana ʻana i nā kaʻa uila, nā kaʻa maʻemaʻe, etc.
Ma ke ʻano o ka hoʻomohala ʻana o ka ikehu hou, ʻoi aku ka ʻoihana photovoltaic, e hoʻomau ka hoʻomaikaʻi ʻana i kēia makahiki.Ma ka lā 23 o Pepeluali, ua wānana nā poʻe pili e piʻi ana ka mana photovoltaic hou i 2022 i ʻoi aku ma mua o 75GW, ʻo ia hoʻi ma kahi o 75-90GW.Hoʻohālikelike ʻia kēia waiwai me ka ʻikepili o ka National Energy Administration - ʻo ka mana photovoltaic hou i hoʻokomo ʻia o ka ʻāina ma 2021 e pili ana i 55GW, kahi hoʻonui makahiki o 36% -64%.I ka manawa like, ua manaʻo ʻia mai 2022 a 2025, hiki i ka 83-99GW ka nui o ka photovoltaic hou o koʻu ʻāina.Wahi a ka ʻikepili mai ka Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, i ka makahiki 2021, ʻo ka hana photovoltaic o koʻu ʻāina o polysilicon, silicon wafers, cell, a me nā modules e hiki i 505,000 tons, 227GW, 198GW, a me 182GW, kēlā me kēia, piʻi 27.5%, 40.6%, 46.9%, a me 46.1% makahiki ma ka makahiki.Ua ʻoi aku ka nui o nā huahana photovoltaic makahiki ma mua o 28.4 biliona kālā ʻAmelika.
Wahi a ka hōʻike noiʻi hou loa o CITIC Construction Investment, ua ʻoi aku ka mana o ka photovoltaic home i Ianuali 2022 ma mua o nā mea i manaʻo ʻia, a ua ʻoi aku ka nui o ka mana photovoltaic hou i ka ʻāina ma mua o 7GW, kahi hoʻonui makahiki o 200%.Ma waena o lākou, ʻo 4.5GW ka mana hou i hoʻokomo ʻia o nā photovoltaics, kahi hoʻonui makahiki o 250%;ʻO ka mana hou o nā photovoltaics kikowaena he 2.5GW, kahi hoʻonui makahiki-ma-makahiki o 150%.ʻO nā mea hana silika i uka, nā ʻāpana silika, nā ʻōpala o lalo, nā modula, a me nā mea hoʻohuli a me nā mea kōkua, ʻo nā loulou āpau i ke kaulahao ʻoihana e piha i nā kauoha, ʻaʻole e hāʻule ka helu hana akā piʻi.ʻAʻole nawaliwali paha ka wā kahiko o kēia makahiki.
Ke kākau nei mākou i kēia, manaʻolana mākou e hiki i nā poʻe o Ukraine ke pale iā lākou iho a me ko lākou mau ʻohana, e hoʻolilo i kēia manawa kūikawā me ka maluhia, a hoʻi a loaʻa i kahi home maluhia i ka wā hiki.
Ka manawa hoʻouna: Mar-12-2022